Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 80763.855368 85258.065996 89749.838200 94572.793368 99601.489240 104686.826944 110214.844155
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 73862.619065 80782.928529 87891.704319 95729.646255 104118.679543 112817.927847 122510.345413
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 67933.771413 76433.346230 85356.748817 95402.510077 106375.405694 117975.606408 131144.414508
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 64581.704460 74383.810135 84860.808029 96857.445412 110178.096580 124479.247546 140957.250474
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 61523.277389 72342.102565 84089.485479 97741.364651 113116.794668 129844.266299 149363.833407
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 58412.324529 70002.092910 82769.402867 97807.511031 114962.725602 133849.702678 156139.755048
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 55560.129659 67772.039234 81405.760381 97664.581741 116431.293985 137317.162983 162219.714368
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 54163.235563 67114.896722 81746.753995 99387.326579 119959.233043 143070.912510 170872.818833
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 52901.738809 66527.282946 82092.165591 101049.382046 123368.337464 148661.745239 179337.103480
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 51255.414988 65394.442366 81721.466731 101803.943915 125666.076026 152935.188563 186265.554434
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 49270.875474 63766.765442 80685.312103 101697.673839 126889.907392 155913.902326 191658.261305
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 47705.824762 62579.646479 80114.452864 102090.533194 128659.851120 159502.357061 197752.903092
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 45976.104487 61153.807243 79232.208124 102100.413366 129984.942284 162602.735904 203341.652241
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 45001.750061 60628.827147 79419.663188 103391.409097 132849.438552 167547.946191 211163.412889
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 43283.526927 59106.325140 78323.011932 103056.570254 133697.888982 170051.497892 216050.715105
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 42585.712585 58846.280460 78767.591877 104607.163212 136844.496859 175331.078712 224307.828015
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 41646.647498 58238.374838 78744.031242 105547.958771 139223.326528 179676.491330 231447.341331
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 40361.130010 57136.631706 78056.370664 105618.446362 140493.998565 182653.066278 236916.231882
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 39045.057395 55951.073220 77222.076904 105466.458296 141456.878195 185232.672665 241892.440725
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 38671.335519 55991.981338 77949.681193 107298.572037 144917.746523 190911.869643 250721.834044
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 38292.554920 56007.830968 78631.833492 109065.775738 148299.730429 196508.750512 259482.497622
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 37527.440826 55477.892783 78580.553152 109867.958126 150444.232788 200563.380124 266340.260877
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 36420.491242 54451.036587 77846.722062 109754.985771 151396.011433 203110.638969 271313.385636